Does Hezbollah represent Lebanon? What impact will the death of longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah have?

What is Hezbollah? And what role does it play in Lebanon?

Hezbollah, which implies “party of God” in Arabic, was born during the Lebanese Civil War following the Israeli invasion and occupation of Lebanon in 1982.

The group was officially established in 1985 with… publication of the manifesto detailed Hezbollah’s goals for the region. The manifesto outlined a plan for replication The Iranian Revolution of 1979 in Lebanon and create a Shiite Islamic state. She pledged allegiance to the Supreme Leader of the Iranian Revolution, Ruhollah Mousavi Khomeini, and vowed to fight against the Israeli occupation of Lebanon and the Palestinian territories.

The civil war in Lebanon resulted in 1991 with the signing of the “AgreementAgreement with Taif” during which the warring factions agreed that the only way to move forward in Lebanon was through a political and democratic process. As a result, Hezbollah had to develop a political wing, and in 1992 Hezbollah entered the political ring by running in national elections and winning 12 of the 128 seats in parliament.

But while the peace agreement called for the disarmament of militia groups, Hezbollah allowed to maintain its armed wing as a “resistance” group fighting the Israeli occupation in southern Lebanon.

Many Lebanese political parties allied cooperate with Hezbollah at this point. While these parties didn’t necessarily share the group’s views or involvement in Iran, they were similarly committed to fighting the Israeli occupation, and the fundamental force on this effort was Hezbollah fighters.

Hezbollah’s presence in Lebanon’s parliament and government and its alliance with various political parties have allowed it to manage the country and veto decisions that don’t fit its agenda or serve its interests.

This is very visible in a recurring presidential vacuum in the country.

Since 2005, Lebanon has experienced three presidential lapses: from November 2007 to May 2008, from May 2014 to October 2016, and from October 31, 2023 to the present. Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berriwho’s Shiite and known for his loyalty to Hezbollah, refuses to convene parliament to carry presidential elections unless a candidate is approved by Hezbollah and its allies.

Hezbollah doesn’t only have a political and military wing provides various servicesresembling social welfare, health care, utilities, education and even the safety of his community.

Is it correct to view Hezbollah primarily as a militia supported by Iran?

Yes – Hezbollah is primarily a militia supported by Iran. It exists to serve the Iranian regime and spread its ideology in the region, as outlined in the group’s 1985 manifesto. In 2009, Hezbollah issued the so-called latest manifesto during which it confirmed its involvement in the Shiite Islamic resistance movement led by Tehran.

In terms of financial and military support, in 2016 Nasrallah confirmed: “Hezbollah’s budget, everything it eats and drinks, its weapons and missiles come from the Islamic Republic of Iran.”

Moreover, with Iran’s support, Hezbollah was capable of create and develop its own illegal financial network through money laundering, drug trafficking and other illegal activities.

Along with Iran, Syria played a serious role in the rise of Hezbollah. Agreement with Taif called on the Syrian Armed Forces to Lebanon for 2 years to assist establish law and order after greater than a decade of civil war.

However, he remained in Lebanon for over 16 years, and the Syrian government’s closeness to the Iranian regime made Hezbollah a perfect ally. So much in order that when civil war broke out in Syria in 2011, Hezbollah emerged as the fundamental actor on this conflict by sending hundreds of Lebanese fighters to Syria to support government efforts to suppress the popular rebellion.

How popular is Hezbollah in Lebanon?

Support for Hezbollah has fluctuated over the years. When Israel withdrew from Lebanon in 2000, many Lebanese celebrated Hezbollah as the country’s liberator.

But others began to insist that Hezbollah achieve this stop military activities and for the Lebanese Armed Forces to take over Hezbollah’s responsibilities in securing Lebanon’s borders.

Moreover, growing anti-Syrian sentiments in Lebanon, v some as a result of serious human rights violationsalso reduced Hezbollah’s popularity as a result of its close ties.

On February 14, 2005 Prime Minister of Lebanon Rafic Hairiknown for his opposition to Hezbollah and Syria, was assassinated. The evidence pointed to this each were involved.

Killing sparked mass anti-government protestsanti-Syrian and anti-Hezbollah protests on the streets of Beirut. Next Cedar Revolution led to the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon and usually meant a decline in Hezbollah’s popularity.

This decline was visible in the 2005 electionsduring which the anti-Syrian and anti-Hezbollah political coalition won.

Since 2005, a number of events have occurred in Lebanon indicating clear opposition to Hezbollah. Several journalists and political figures were murdered for speaking out against Hezbollah and Syria. Their deaths outraged many Lebanese.

And in 2015 “You stink” the ecological movement was born in protest against political corruption and Hezbollah’s control over waste management.

In 2019an analogous protest movement was born, with Lebanese taking to the streets to precise their frustration with corruption and inflation. Under the slogan “Everything means everything”, the Lebanese protested against all political parties – including Hezbollah.

These events indicate Lebanon’s dissatisfaction with Hezbollah.

AND 2020 survey showed the decline in Hezbollah’s popularity even amongst the Shiite community, which accounts for about one third population.

Polls conducted over nearly a 12 months of hostilities after Hezbollah’s ally Hamas attacked Israel on October 7, 2023, suggest that Hezbollah’s influence continues to outpace its popularity. Some Arab Barometer survey on the Lebanese in early 2024 said only 30% trusted Hezbollah, while 55% said they didn’t trust the group in any respect. Although Hezbollah still enjoys the trust of 85% of Shiites, the militia is trusted only by 9% of Sunnis and Druze and 6% of Christians.

What is the structure of Hezbollah?

Originally, Hezbollah’s leadership consisted of a seven-member religious council established in the Nineteen Eighties; it has branches and committees that regulate various matters, including finance, social, political and military issues. This religious council, called the “Shura Council”, has regional offices in Beirut, the Bekaa Valley in the country’s eastern region, and southern Lebanon.

At the end of the Lebanese Civil War, two more bodies were added: an executive council and a politburo, or central political body. The religious council was chaired by Sayyid Muhammad Hussein Fadlallahwho provided religious guidance to the Shiite community and was often described as the spiritual leader of Hezbollah.

Both the Council and Hezbollah pledge allegiance to the Supreme Leader of Iran. The council can be tasked with electing the Secretary General of Hezbollah.

After the Israeli assassination of the co-founder of Hezbollah Abbas al-Musawiin 1992, Hassan Nasrallah assumed this role and remained Secretary General until his death in Beirut during the current Israeli campaign.

What impact will Nasrallah’s death have on Hezbollah operations?

Attacks on Hezbollah pagers and other wireless devices They were intended primarily to cause chaos and interrupt communication between various commanders and units.

The assassinations of Hezbollah commanders are aimed toward removing key decision-makers. The death of Secretary General Nasrallah is a decisive blow to a gaggle already vulnerable in consequence of last week’s attacks. The goal is to demoralize the fighters.

Moreover, these attacks send a transparent message that Israel will not accept tit-for-tat attacks on its northern border.

However, Israel will not necessarily achieve the desired result.

After Israel murdered Abbas al-Musawi, his wife and son, only his death occurred confirmed Hezbollah’s involvement in its mission. Nasrallah followed in Al-Musawi’s footsteps and under his leadership the group has increased its recruitmentarsenal and reach Lebanon and beyond.

The situation is currently fluid and it’s difficult to predict what will occur next. However, a brand new wave of violence can only strengthen Hezbollah’s resolve.

Moreover, there could also be greater involvement in the region by other Hezbollah-linked players resembling Houthis in Yemen and Kata’ib Hezbollah in Iraq.

After the announcement of Nasrallah’s death Supreme Leader of Iran Khamenei threatened Israel and promised more support for Hezbollah in Lebanon.