A weakened Hezbollah is being provoked into an all-out conflict with Israel – the consequences would be catastrophic for all

For almost a yr, Israel and Hezbollah have been conducting operations increasingly provocative cross-border skirmishes as observers warn that this escalating war of attrition may lead the region to total conflictThe previous few days have brought this devastating scenario closer to reality.

Israel got here first pager and walkie-talkie attackan unprecedented attack on Hezbollah communications, during which 1000’s of the organization’s activists suffered. This was followed by the murder of Ibrahim Aqila key Hezbollah leader who was killed in an airstrike that also killed other senior commanders of the militant group, in addition to some civilians. Hezbollah responded by expanding geographical scope Rockets fired at Israel hit each military facilities and civilian districts north and east of Haifa.

As a scholar from Lebanon and IsraelI even have been following the dynamics of this war of attrition since October 8, 2023, the day after Hamas launched an unprecedented and deadly attack on Israel, which responded by bombing the Gaza Strip. Hezbollah then began firing rockets into northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Despite the high rhetoric and mutual threats destructionUntil recently, neither Israel nor Hezbollah nor the latter’s sponsor, Iran, have shown any interest in a full-scale war. All sides surely know the likely devastating consequences of such an eventuality for themselves: Israel has the military power to devastate Beirut and other parts of Lebanon, because it did in Gaza, while even a weakened Hezbollah could fire 1000’s of missiles at strategic locations in Israel, from the airport to central Tel Aviv, water supply lines and power hubs, and offshore gas platforms.

Instead, there was an exchange of fireside and blows along the shared border, with some red lines established regarding the geographic scope of attacks and efforts made to not deliberately goal civilians.

However, Israel’s recent attacks in Lebanon could turn this war of attrition into a brand new and far more severe situation, putting the region on the brink of a full-blown war. Such a war would wreak havoc in Lebanon and Israel, and will also draw Iran and the United States into a direct confrontation. In this manner, too fulfill the apparent Hamas fighters who about 1,200 Israelis were murdered on October 7, hoping that Israel’s decisive response will attract more groups from across the region.

A dangerous “new phase”

Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah has insisted throughout the nearly year-long war that his organization would stop fire provided that a ceasefire agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas. But in recent weeks, Israel has taken the conflict in the other way.

The country’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, described coordinated attacks on Hezbollah targets as a “new phase,” adding that the “center of gravity” of the war was shifting north to Lebanon. The Israeli government added the “safe return of northerners to their homes” as additional war goal.

The attack on Hezbollah’s communication system was aimed toward agents of that organization, but hit many civilian passers-byleaving the Lebanese people in shock, trauma, anger and despair.

It showed Israel’s tactical military advantage over Hezbollah. An unprecedented penetration into the depths of the organization’s command and rank-and-file structures has never happened in any conflict or war in the world. It hit Hezbollah in its most vulnerable places and even revealed its cooperation with Iran – certainly one of the people injured in the explosion of pagers he was the ambassador of Iran in Lebanon.

This the murder of Akil two days later, there was one other sign that the Israeli government had now decided to try to alter the rules of this dangerous game of retaliation and counter-retaliation. It is clear that as a substitute of the uneasy establishment that has defined this war of attrition for almost a yr, Israel’s intention now is to pressure Hezbollah into admitting defeat.

Getting uncontrolled

Nasrallah delivered gloomy and rebellious speech after the pager attack. While admitting that Hezbollah had been severely weakened by the operation, he defined the Israeli attack as a continuation of “many other massacres carried out by the enemy over decades.”

This is how he put it in the popular historical narrative amongst many Lebanese and Palestinians who perceive Israel as a criminal entity who recurrently massacres innocent civilians.

Nasrallah also stressed that his unwavering commitment to supporting Hamas in the Gaza Strip stays unwavering.

Stating that Israel’s actions have “I crossed all the red lines“and will mean a declaration of war, Nasrallah also reiterated what he has said at previous summits on this ongoing conflict: that retaliation is coming, and the only query is timing and scale. In doing so, Nasrallah suggested that he should not be thinking about a full-blown war.

Israel, on the other hand, seems less cautious. After almost a full yr of subdued tensions with Hezbollah, Israeli leaders seem willing to risk an escalation that would spiral uncontrolled.

It is difficult to find out what strategy lies behind Israel’s actions: since October 7, when The Biden administration has noticedIsrael has not presented a coherent strategy with clear political goals.

Critics of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, meanwhile, argue that he is guided mainly by the desire for his own political survival and maintaining power as head of state, linking Israel’s interests with his own.

Uniting the “axis of resistance”

Where does this leave Nasrallah as he considers Hezbollah’s response, presumably in consultation with Iran? After such devastating blows to Nasrallah’s organization, it is hard to imagine that Hezbollah would be willing to reduce, stop cross-border attacks, and withdraw from the Israeli border, or abandon its commitment to supporting Hamas in Gaza.

On the other hand, the decision to launch a full-scale war after a yr of avoiding it is fraught with great risk – each Nasrallah and his sponsors in Tehran are well aware of the high costs of such a war for Hezbollah, Lebanon and potentially Iran.

If Hezbollah were to go to war with Israel now, it would be making its most significant move since Founded in 1982But it would accomplish that with crippled communications systems and without much of its leadership – a few of whom had worked side by side with Nasrallah for many years, constructing the organization’s military capabilities with him.

In some ways, Israelis under Netanyahu’s leadership, in addition to the Lebanese, who’ve increasingly turn out to be hostages to Hezbollah’s interests at home, face similar problems: their well-being is being sacrificed for other priorities.

Netanyahu recent statements concerns about Israeli residents in the north ring hole after 11 months of policies that put them in even greater danger, and opposing the Gaza ceasefire agreement which would also put an end to hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel.

In Lebanon, Hezbollah has dragged the country into this war against the will of the majority of Lebanese people – a choice that led to significant destruction in parts of the country that were already struggling with serious political and economic problems.

Nasrallah’s speech described Hezbollah’s plight as the plight of all of Lebanon – while sending a veiled threat that dissent would not be tolerated. Many Lebanese undoubtedly sympathize with the Palestinian cause and detest Israel’s war in Gaza. But at the same time, they might shudder at the thought that their very own well-being would must be sacrificed in the process.

In the meantime, Yahya Sinwar, The leader and brain of Hamas behind the October 7 massacre, can look with satisfaction at the unfolding events between Israel and Hezbollah. His plan is designed to impress a unification of all fronts of the so-called “resistance axis,” which incorporates the Houthis in Yemen, in addition to Hezbollah and other Iranian-backed groups, with the hope of a regional war with Israel.

A yr later, we’re closer to this scenario than ever.