Long COVID to cost Australian economy almost $10 billion in 2022 – new research

The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that 10–20% of individuals are affected by long COVID after recovering from their initial COVID infection.

Common symptoms include fatigue, shortness of breath and “brain fog,” but greater than 200 different symptoms have been linked to long COVID. The condition affects every day functioning and might be debilitating.

Our research, published today, estimates the economic burden long COVID in AustraliaWe have calculated that the long-term COVID-19 pandemic will cost the Australian economy almost A$10 billion in 2022 alone.

What is long COVID?

WHO defines long COVID as continuation or development of new symptoms three months after primary COVID-19 infection, if these symptoms persist for not less than two months without some other explanation.

We are still learning what causes long COVID, but persistent symptoms may very well be explained by the various effects of SARS-CoV-2 (the virus that causes COVID) on different parts of the bodyFor example, the virus can affect heartblood vessels and lungs.

Studies suggest long COVID is linked to the virus persisting in the body long after infectionwhich in turn causes dysfunction immune system.

SARS-CoV-2 may affect the brain and getting to knowespecially executive function, which is the power to plan, monitor, and implement goals. This may cause difficulty in performing work tasks and other every day activities for individuals with long COVID.

What did we do?

We used Australian data to estimate the variety of infections in 2022 and modelled long COVID-19 and recovery rates across all age groups to understand the burden of long COVID-19.

We then used this data in a mathematical model to estimate the labor supply losses across the economy in 2022 and determine the decline in real gross domestic product (GDP). Economic losses occur because people affected by Long COVID could also be unable to work or work at reduced capability for a while.

We found that at the height in September 2022, up to 1,374,805 people (5.4% of Australians) were living with long COVID after a single infection. Taking under consideration recovery from long COVID, up to 3.4% would still be living with long COVID after 12 months.

We estimated that Long COVID caused greater than 100 million lost work hours in 2022. These lost employment hours translate into an economic cost of about $9.6 billion, or 0.5% of GDP in 2022.

Working-age adults between the ages of 30 and 49 were hardest hit. Estimated labor force losses were best for those aged 30–39 (27.5 million hours, or 26.9% of total labor force losses), who had the best overall variety of individuals with long COVID of any age group. Those aged 40–49 followed closely behind, with an estimated lack of 24.5 million hours, or 23.9% of total labor force losses.

The higher variety of long-term COVID cases amongst younger age groups is probably going because they’re more likely to experience COVID infections, perhaps because they’re more mobile and socialize with others.

We didn’t include losses incurred by healthy employees who were unable to work because they were caring for others with COVID or long COVID. In addition, we only considered a single COVID infection and the danger of developing long COVID after it. However, we didn’t consider the danger of reinfection, which increase the likelihood long COVID. Therefore, our studies likely underestimate the impact of long COVID.

Long COVID affects people of all ages and may occur whatever the severity of COVID infection. The widespread and ongoing nature of COVID infections signifies that even when only a small percentage of individuals get long COVID, that remains to be a really large number of individuals.

For comparison, 2% of Australians have coronary artery disease, which is the leading explanation for disease and death in Australia (and globally). Even if only 3.4% of individuals have chronic, long COVID, that is at very high public health and economic costs.

And unlike coronary heart disease, which primarily affects older people, our study shows that the consequences of long COVID-19 are best in working-age adults, which explains why the economic impact is so large.

Global trend

Many countries, including United States and Great Britain are experiencing similar economic losses due to long COVID-19, due to the increasing number of individuals unable to work.

The latest estimates indicate roughly 400 million people around the globe have long been affected by COVID. The disease could cost 1 trillion US dollars annually – equivalent to about 1% world economy.

The weight of evidence around long COVID and its impact on the health of the population has led experts to call for this state of affairs to be taken under consideration in political decisions.

What can we do?

In Australia, the direct effects of acute COVID, corresponding to hospitalization and death, are primarily used to determine eligibility for antivirals and the worth of vaccines. Healthy people under 70 should not eligible for subsidized antiviral drugswhile vaccines are limited for kids and adult low booster rates.

But there is robust evidence vaccinations reduce the likelihood of long COVID and a few evidence antiviral drugs may lower the danger. Therefore, long COVID ought to be included in Australian policy and guidelines on antivirals and vaccines.

Other measures that reduce the danger of COVID infection may even reduce the danger of long COVID. These include specializing in protected indoor airand use of masks in high-risk and crowded places throughout the COVID epidemicespecially in healthcare and elderly care facilities.

Finally, we’d like to consider how to support individuals with long COVID who cannot work. Long COVID is the sting in the tail of SARS-CoV-2, and proactive planning for it’ll reduce the impact on society.