Anti-Syrian violence in Turkey complicates process of normalization of relations between Turkey and Syria

The probabilities of a rapprochement between regional rivals Turkey and Syria were momentarily raised on July 22, 2024, when news emerged that the leaders of each countries we arranged a long-awaited meeting geared toward resolving long-standing differences. Within hours, Turkish sources dismissed rumours of an imminent meeting between the 2 leaders as false.

The sensitivity on this issue is comprehensible. The recent upsurge in anti-Syrian violence in Turkey has highlighted the fragility of efforts to revive diplomatic relations with Syriawhich were cut off firstly Syrian Civil War.

This conflict affected Turkey in some ways. Ankara sided with the opposition forces in Syria and eventually intervened militarily, occupation of the northern part of the countryMeanwhile, the fighting has led to an influx of thousands and thousands of refugees into Turkey, sparking anti-Syrian sentiment and, more recently, violence.

On June 30, 2024, the town of Kayseri in central Turkey was the location of acts of vandalism and arson against properties, vehicles, and businesses belonging to Syrians. sexual harassment allegations against the Syrian. Powered by social mediaThe attacks soon spread and sparked probably the most violent anti-Syrian riots so far in areas of Turkey hosting large numbers of Syrian refugees.

It has also sparked or fueled violence in opposition-held northwestern Syria against Turkish military positions. The region was already on edge after comments by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan signaling his desire to revive ties with the Syrian government — something that will have profound consequences for opposition-held areas.

Détente in Damascus?

Erdogan recently called for a “new era with Syria” after years of hostility between the Turkish leader and his Syrian counterpart.

Since popular uprisings in 2012 changed into civil war, Erdogan has held Syrian President Bashar al-Assad accountable for the persecution and displacement of Syrians, which has made negotiations between the neighbouring countries difficult.

But now Erdogan has suggested he is prepared to fulfill with Assad. His hope is that a return to normal relations will facilitate the return of 3.6 million Syrian refugees to Turkey and resolve common concern a few potential Kurdish state in northeastern Syria.

As a political scientist specializing in security in the center eastI can see how a diplomatic breakthrough may benefit each leaders. For Erdogan, it will ease tensions over Syrian refugees; for Assad, it will be one other sign that his regional isolation is over. But elsewhere, it complicates the already complex and volatile nature of Turkey’s involvement in Syria, especially in its relations with Syrian refugees and opposition groups in northwestern Syria.

Anti-Syrian Riots and Social Media

The outbreak of violence against Syria in Turkey got here just days after Erdogan’s decision was the primary to signal the likelihood of meeting with AssadThe Turkish president accused the opposition parties of fueling racism and stoking tensionsMeanwhile, Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya drew attention to online campaigns fueling violence, noting that 38% “Provocative and negative” posts published on the evening of the riots got here from bot accounts.

Whoever was behind the campaign to stoke hostility, it fueled existing tensions in opposition-held northwestern Syria. Hundreds of indignant Syrians took to the streets in several cities, attacking Turkish trucks and removing Turkish flagswhile demanding the withdrawal of Turkish forces. In response, Türkiye closed its borders with northwestern Syria.

The growing anti-Turkish sentiment in opposition-held areas of Syria underscores the complicated nature of Turkey’s bid for rapprochement with the Damascus regime. Having established himself as a staunch supporter of anti-Assad forces, Erdogan now stands accused of turning his back on his former allies. Moreover, for refugees in Turkey who fled Assad’s repression, a deal that will allow them to return could be tantamount to a betrayal.

When news of Erdogan’s intention to fulfill with Assad began to flow into in the media, some Syrian opposition factions called it “Turkey Sells Out Opposition.”

Some Syrian experts said that normalization of relations with Assad was a step towards mass forced return refugees to Syria in the face of growing public demands and electoral pressures. As was evident during 2023 elections in Turkeythe return of refugees has develop into a politicized issue in the country.

All of this leaves Erdogan in a difficult position. While he desires to reassure Turkish public opinion, he doesn’t wish to anger or cut ties with the Syrian opposition, a bunch with which he previously maintained relations as potential ally against Kurdish independence.

Negotiations with Assad

For a time, negotiations with the Syrian regime were considered a red line by Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, known by its Turkish acronym AKP. The party saw Assad because the essential actor accountable for the persecution and forced displacement of Syrians.

Until recently, Assad had shown no interest in meeting with Erdogan because he blamed him for the violence in Syria by supporting rebel groups fighting the regime. But he recently signaled that “he could meet with President Erdogan, provided that the sovereignty of the Syrian state over its entire territory is respected and all forms of terrorism are combated.”

So why the diplomatic push for rapprochement now? Part of the reply lies in Erdogan’s desire to send back Syrian refugees living in Turkey because of his domestic popularity. Even if he fails to achieve an agreement, he’ll have the ability to talk to a public increasingly critical of “open door policy Syrian refugees that attempts were made to determine cooperation with Damascus, but that this didn’t bring any concrete results.

Then there may be the fear shared by Türkiye and Syria concerning the materialization of a de facto Kurdish state, Autonomous Administration of North and East SyriaAlso often called Rojava, in northeastern Syria. Rojava is supported by the US but considered a terrorist organization by Turkey.

If US withdraws troops from the region, Erdogan would should negotiate with Assad over Turkey’s policy towards northeastern Syria.

However, each leaders are currently in a weak position to dictate the terms of a brand new order in northeastern Syria. Restoring diplomatic relations would allow each countries to coordinate their efforts to realize a standard goal preventing the creation of an autonomous Kurdish state.

Anticipating the impact of a possible rapprochement on its political interests, the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria connections diplomatic efforts “a conspiracy against the Syrian people” and “a clear legitimization of the Turkish occupation” of areas previously dominated by Kurds. The United States also opposes normalization of relations with Syria in the absence of “genuine progress” towards a political solution to the conflict.

The New Realities of the Middle East

Erdogan’s try to restore relations with Syria can be seen as an adjustment to recent political realities in the Middle East. United Arab Emirates restored diplomatic relations with Syria in 2018. The Arab League also normalized relations with Syria and readmit it in 2023. Saudi Arabia also reopened its embassy in Damascus in 2024.

In other words, Syria’s isolation in the region has ended. As a result, Ankara can have concluded that it’s in its best interest to take care of diplomatic relations with a rustic with which it must negotiate and coordinate on a variety of military, political and migration issues.