Hamas I made a brand new offer to the Israeli government a couple of possible ceasefire in the Gaza Strip last Friday. Offer attached a member of the Israeli negotiating team called it “a very significant breakthrough.”
That prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to send the head of the country’s Mossad spy agency, David Barnea, to Qatar. There he met with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani, who served as an intermediary in the lengthy talks.
These events raised hopes that negotiations would progress. However, inside 48 hours, reality intervened. It turned out that Barnea was actually in Qatar to provide recent requirements on Hamas before progress was made, which led to accusations that the Israeli government tried to sabotage this proposal.
Meanwhile, fighting in the Gaza Strip has stopped. intensified. Israeli forces at the moment are expanding their military operations in Gaza City, despite declaring months ago that the district was completely under their control. What might be concluded from all this? And is there any prospect of a short lived ceasefire, or is it still a lost cause?
Ohad Zwigenberg / POOL / EPA
In reality, the probabilities of reaching a ceasefire agreement are, and all the time have been, slim. Netanyahu learned soon after the war began that it might be unattainable to completely destroy Hamas.
The group has suffered huge losses, but it surely seems to have the opportunity to reconstruct and strengthen its units. It also has numerous support in the occupied West Bank and is closely aligned with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
Despite this, Netanyahu continued his campaign in the Gaza Strip, and the Israeli military quickly moved towards Dahiya Doctrine. It is a long-term military strategy in which direct attacks on insurgent groups such as Hamas are combined with widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure in areas where they operate.
This included the mass destruction of public buildings in the Gaza Strip, including schools, medical centers, water and sewage treatment plants, and all 12 buildings in the Gaza Strip. higher education centers together with tens of 1000’s of homes.
Even this and perseverance limit humanitarian aid, has not brought Hamas to its knees. And Netanyahu now also faces the risk of an escalation of Hezbollah attacks in southern Lebanon, which have forced tens of 1000’s of Israelis to flee in recent months I’m evacuating border region.
The war is proving very costly. But in continuing it, Netanyahu can still count on the support of the coalition of parties that make up his government – especially Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, two key ministers and leaders of spiritual and ethnonationalist parties.
It isn’t any secret that Smotrich would love Israel to proceed its military campaign. July 8 he said on social media that concluding a ceasefire deal now, when Hamas is “collapsing and begging for a ceasefire”, can be “senseless madness”.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir in the past endangered topple the Netanyahu government if any ceasefire agreement is reached before Hamas is destroyed. And with former armed forces chief Benny Gantz, resignation from the War Cabinet in June, their two extreme parties have enjoyed increasing influence in the government.
What will occur now?
Where we go from here depends upon 4 major aspects. One is whether or not Israel can improve its military position in Gaza enough to think it could possibly comprehensively defeat Hamas and end the war by itself terms. That is extremely unlikely, as the conflict is heading toward a high-intensity counterinsurgency operation with no end in sight.
The second is the extent of support for Hamas. It is straightforward to assume that the level of destruction alone must mean that support for ending the war on almost any terms is paramount amongst Palestinians. This is probably not the case.
Israel’s rigid control over Gaza has lasted for a long time, and has resulted in the deaths of 1000’s of Palestinians. 4 israeli attacks in this territory between 2008 and 2021. It is due to this fact more reasonable to consider the deep anger as directed way more at Israel than at Hamas.
Third place is occupied by the United States, whose support is crucial to Israel’s war effort. Joe Biden could cut off arms supplies and force Israel to just accept a ceasefire. However, that is unlikely given the support Israel has in the United States, especially from thousands and thousands of Christian Zionists, not to say Israel Lobby.
Biden is busy with other things at the moment, not least of which is theory about his ability to hunt a second term in the November presidential election.
The cost of the war for Israel in the context of its International repute was significant. But that plays a small role in Netanyahu’s pondering. For him, the conflict can be best to last until November and have the opportunity to return a likeable Donald Trump to the White House.
Ronen Zvulun / POOL / EPA
There are various other issues that would affect the likelihood of a ceasefire, including the position of the recent Iranian government. But there may be a fourth, more specific issue.
Israel is a particularly militarized state that prides itself on its capabilities and is willing to do a fantastic deal in the interests of its security. However, plainly older elements in the military have turn into convinced that the war is unwinnable and the escalation of the conflict with Hezbollah can’t be stopped.
It is from there that Netanyahu could face the strongest opposition to his rule.