Tim Scott PAC will spend $14.3 million on outreach to black voters

Tim Scott, the one black Republican within the Senate and a key ally of Donald Trump, suggested to reporters on June 4 that he believed Trump could gain popularity amongst black male voters. Scott appears willing to lead an information campaign targeting black voters in battleground states. On June 6, Scott’s affiliate Great Opportunity PAC announced it will spend $14.3 million to encourage votes for Trump and Republican Party candidates who didn’t vote.

Scott, who’s rumored to be a candidate for Trump’s vice presidential nomination, reports he told reporters “There is no doubt that African Americans are wide open to partisan political change. If black voters do two things: some stay home and some go to the right, there is no way (Democrats can) fill that gap.”

Although a March poll showed Trump’s support amongst black voters had increased to 23%, a Pew Research poll released in May indicated that number was likely too high, although support for Trump amongst some groups of black voters has increased over the past 4 years. Even amongst black men, polls showed that 20% of black registered voters would vote for Trump if the election were held immediately. Still, 72% of Black voters said Trump was a terrible president, and 65% of Black voters consider he broke the law by trying to change the outcomes of the 2020 election.

According to Brookings, polls showing that black voters are moving toward Trump do based on small samples and will not be as current because the Pew Research survey. Additionally, Howard University political science professor Marcus J. Board identified to Brookings that, overall, black support for Republicans has historically ranged from 8% to 15%, much lower than the 23% reported by Scott. Additionally, following Trump’s guilty verdict within the Stormy Daniels Hush Money case, a survey found that Black individuals who had expressed their support for Trump turned toward Biden, casting doubt on the narrative that Black people have committed to Trump.

According to the Political Center, yes there isn’t a historical basis for the surge in Black Republican voters as exit polls show. To support their thesis, they cite data from American national election surveys. “There isn’t any evidence within the ANES data of any increase in support for Republican presidential candidates amongst Black voters within the recent election. According to data from the 2020 American National Election Study, Donald Trump received just 7% of the Black vote against Joe Biden, almost equivalent to the 6% he received in 2016 against Hillary Clinton. “There is also no evidence in the ANES data of an increase in support for Trump among any major subgroup of black voters.”