Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, who was killed when his helicopter crashed on May 19, 2024 in the mountainous border region, he was a staunch loyalist whose death shall be a major blow to the country’s conservative leadership.
The discovery of the wreckage and bodies got here after an overnight search that was hampered by weather and terrain. The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, announced that the so-called five-day period of public mourning in the country.
as expert on Iran’s internal and foreign policyI imagine that concern about Tehran may transcend the potential human tragedy of the disaster. The change it forces could have significant implications for the Iranian state it consumes internal chaos and regional and international confrontation.
Who was Ebrahim Raisi?
Since the Iranian Revolution in 1979, Raisi has acted as: a persistent apparatchik of the Islamic Republic ia a distinguished protégé of Khameneiwho, as the supreme leader, exercises ultimate authority in the Islamic Republic.
Before becoming president in 2021, Raisi held various positions in the judiciary under the supreme leader. As a prosecutor and eventually Iran-Iraq war in 1988 he sat on the commission that sentenced hundreds of political prisoners to death.
His executions earned him the nickname “The Butcher of Tehran” after which surrendered it US sanctions and condemnation by the United Nations and international human rights organizations.
Raisi since 2006 sat in the Assembly of Expertsthe body that appoints and supervises the supreme leader.
And although he was perceived as lacking charisma and eloquence, 63-year-old Raisi was believed to have been bullied. prepared for fulfillment 85-year-old Khamenei as supreme leader.
National checkered record
At the national level, Raisi’s presidency was like this each cause and effect the regime’s legitimacy crisis and social chaos.
Controversially, he won Presidential elections 2021 after a high number of candidate disqualifications by the Guardian Council, which vets candidates, and historically low voter turnout turnout below 50%.
To reassure his conservative base, Raisi and his government revived the morality police and reimposed religious restrictions on society. This policy led to the Women, Life, Freedom protests initiated by the organization death in police custody Mahsa Amini in 2022. The demonstrations turned out to be the largest and longest in the nearly 50-year history of the Islamic Republic. They also resulted in unprecedented state repression, over 500 demonstrators died and a whole lot more were injured, disappeared and detained. During the protests, Raisi demonstrated his loyalty to the supreme leader and conservative elites by increasing restrictions and repression.
AFP via Getty Images
Meanwhile, under Raisi, Iran’s economy continued to suffer from the merger government mismanagement and corruptionalong with US sanctions which have intensified in response to Tehran’s internal repression and foreign provocations.
Confrontation for rapprochement
The domestic turmoil during Raisi’s presidency was accompanied by changes in Iran’s regional and international role.
As supreme leader, Khamenei has the final say on foreign policy. But Raisi presided over a state that continued on the path confrontation together with your opponentsespecially the USA and Israel.
And whether by selection or perceived necessity, Tehran has moved even further away from any concept of rapprochement with the West.
In the face of tighter US sanctions, Iran under Raisi was reluctant to revive the nuclear deal. Instead, Iran increased its uranium enrichment, blocked international inspectors, and have become a nuclear threshold state.
Raisi also continued “Look East.” his predecessor Hassan Rouhani. To this end, he and his government have sought greater rapprochement with China.
Beijing in turn offered an economic lifeline by importing Iranian crude oil and brokering a diplomatic agreement between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023.
Meanwhile, under Raisi’s presidency, Iran continued to achieve this function an ally and funder anti-American and anti-Western conflicts, supplying Russia with combat drones to be used in Ukraine, and supplying weapons to numerous regional proxies in the Middle East.
Since the Gaza war began on October 7, 2023, Iran under Khamenei and Raisi has maintained a delicate balance between allowing its regional proxies to get up to Israel and the United States while avoiding direct confrontation with each countries, that are traditionally superior enemies.
This balance was briefly disrupted when, in April, the Islamic Republic directly attacked Israel with drones and missiles for the first time in history in retaliation for the attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.
Raisi – although he was circuitously liable for foreign policy – was a key supporter of the Iranian regime’s attempts to further distance itself from the established international order and seek alliances with countries similarly hostile to the West.
Raisi and his colleagues were getting back from a dam opening ceremony in neighboring Azerbaijan when the helicopter crashed. The ceremony was likely intended to curry favor with Iran and Azerbaijan, which had previously taken an ambiguous, if not adversarial, stance in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, which ended with a convincing Azerbaijani victory in late 2023.
What could the change of president mean?
In Raisi, Supreme Leader Khamenei had a long-time loyalist, a regime insider, and a potential successor.
Under the Iranian structure, any death of a president causes the first vice chairman to function interim president. In this case, it means Mohammad Mokhber, who’s a politician much like Raisi and who was a distinguished member of the Iranian team negotiating arms deals with Moscow.
Iran could have to too hold presidential elections inside 50 days. Time will tell who the supreme leader will bow to as the next president and potential successor.
However, it is nearly certain that conservatives in Tehran will proceed to circle the wagons, given the internal and external pressures they face.
At the national level, this might take the form of greater state repression and election manipulation. At the regional and international level, I imagine this may increasingly mean strengthening ties with emerging allies and continuing calculated confrontation with traditional adversaries.