The rapid collapse of the Assad regime in Syria caused shock waves in the Middle East. The removal of the dictator, whose family ruled the country with an iron fist for over half a century, caused potentially a seismic shift of the balance of power in the region.

But there are also essential repercussions outside Syria and its neighborhood – with Russia one of the most important powers.

In 2015, the Assad regime was on the brink of fall. This He was saved through Russian intervention – with the support of Iran and Hezbollah. Fired in the context of The growing threat from the Islamic State Russia enabled the Assad regime to pus the other rebel forces.

Over the following years, Assad allowed Assad to consolidate control over the capital, other key cities, especially the coastal region, by which Russia had two military bases.

The future of these bases is now uncertain. The Russian Navy base in Tartus-which dates back to the Soviet times-also the air base in Khmeimi, founded southeast of Latakia in 2015, were essential benefits of Russia to display military force in the Mediterranean Sea and strengthen the Kremlin’s claim to the Russian status of great power .

Considering the importance of bases for Russia and significant investments revamped the years in supporting the regime, the fall of Assad It reflects badly About Russia’s ability to make sure a reputable influence on the global scene.

Even if Russia someway manages to barter a contract with recent rulers of Syria about the future of its military bases, the undeniable fact that Moscow was unable to save lots of a vital ally, resembling Assad, reveals critical weaknesses in Russia’s ability to act, not only saying , like great power.

There are clear intelligence failures that omitted or incorrectly interpreted the accumulation of anti-asssad forces by runny nose and silent support of Turkey. These failures were then compounded by the reduced Russian military assets in Syria and the inability to strengthen them in a short while. This is clearly as a consequence of the ongoing Russia war against Ukraine.

The impoverishment of the military abilities of two other allies in the region – Iran and Hezbollah – moreover intensified the difficulties for Assad and exacerbated the effect of excessive pulling of Russia. This also raises the query of whether Russia strategically evaluated the situation and underestimated its sensitivity in Syria.

But much more so, he emphasizes Russia’s own dependence on allies, who simply don’t agree with Moscow’s demands – as Assad did when he provided Russia with its military bases – but who actively support the great power, which has no means to acknowledge them Status – like Iran and Hezbollah did it in 2015.

Where are China?

China is missing on this equation. While Beijing on the Assad side after the start of the civil war in Syria, the support was mainly rhetorical. This was mainly stopping the intervention supported by the western part of the one in Libya, which led to the fall of Gaddafi and since then immersed the country in chaos.

Loud Assad visit to China in September 2023 Partnership strategic agreement. This appeared to signal the next step towards the rehabilitation of the Syrian regime, at the least in the eyes of Beijing. But when Push got here to a pushing and Assad’s rule was under a serious threat, China did nothing to save lots of him.

This raises a vital query About the Chinese judgment of the Syrian regime i The evolving crisis. But here can be a wider point on the Russian ambition of great power.

Despite the whole conversation about the unlimited partnership between Moscow and Beijing, China eventually did nothing to save lots of Russia from the embarrassing defeat in Syria. Where Russia needed a military presence to strengthen its claims to the status of great power, Chinese interests in the Middle East are First of all, about economic possibilities and perceived threat Islamic fundamentalist terrorism.

This clearly limited Beijing’s appetite to get more involved, let alone save Assad.

Putin has decreased

Russia’s position in the Middle East is now at risk. Moscow lost a key ally at Assad. Other foremost allies, Iran and Hezbollah are significantly weakened. Israel and Türkiye, with which the Kremlin has not had easy relations in the previous few years, have been strengthened.

This exposes the Holowness of Russian claims for great power status. It will probably reduce the Russian prestige and the position it has in the eyes of other partners – regardless of whether or not they are China or North Korea, members of BRICS, or countries on the global south, which Russia recently tried to get.

The consequences of this for Ukraine-probably the foremost source of excessive stretching of Russia-will probably be ambivalent. On the one hand, the ease with which Assad has been covered shows that Russia isn’t invincible and that its support for brutal dictatorships has limits. On the other hand, there ought to be no waiting for anything but doubles in Ukraine.

Putin needs success that restores his national and international trust – and quickly. After all, Donald Trump doesn’t like losers.

After the fall of the Al-Assad regime in Syria Apparently it was discovered.

It is believed that the supplies, found by Syrian rebels, are related to the al-Assad military seat, implying the fallen regime In the production and distribution of the drug.

But as we are going to see, Captagon was once a pharmaceutical drug, similar to some of the legally available stimulants, which we still use in conditions, including hyperactivity disorder (ADHD).

Captagon was once a pharmaceutical

Captagon is the original brand of the old synthetic pharmaceutical stimulator originally Made in Germany in the Nineteen Sixties. It was another to amphetamine and methamphetamine, which were then used as drugs.

The drug has energetic ingredient Phenetic And initially it was sold to the conditions, including ADHD and NARKOPSY Sleep disorder. It had a similar application to some of the legally available stimulants that we still use, resembling demfetamine.

Captagon has Similar effects For amphetamines. It increases dopamine in the brain, which leads to a sense of well -being, pleasure and euphoria. It also improves concentration, concentration and endurance. But it has many unwanted unintended effects, resembling low level psychosis.

The drug was originally sold mainly in the Middle East and part of Europe. It was available without a prescription (without a prescription) in Europe for a short time before it only became prescription.

It was approved only briefly in the United States before it became a substance controlled in the Eighties, but it was still legal to treat narcolepsy in lots of European countries until recently.

According to International Drug Control Council Captagon pharmaceutical production stopped until 2009.

Illegal trade took control

The illegally produced version is often referred to as a captagon (with small C). Sometimes it is called “Chemical courage“Because it is believed that it is utilized by soldiers in war -torn areas of the Middle East to help them in focus and energy.

For example, apparently it was found on The bodies of Hamas soldiers During the conflict with Israel.

Its production is relatively easy and inexpensivemaking him an obvious goal of drug trafficking on the black market.

Black Captagon market It is now almost exclusively produced in Syria and nearby countries, resembling Lebanon. It is most frequently utilized in the Middle East, including recreationally In some states of the Persian Gulf.

This is one of the most commonly used illegal drugs in Syria.

AND Last report He suggests that Captagon generated over USD 7.3 billion in Syria and Lebanon in 2020–2022 (about $ 2.4 billion a 12 months).

We learn about illegal drugs normally that every one attacks or repression about production or sales have a very limited impact on the drug market, because one other manufacturer or distributor appears to satisfy demand.

So, almost certainly, given the size of the Captagon market in the Middle East, the latest drug discoveries and convulsions will probably reduce production just for a short time.

Dressed in a modest gray suit and tie with a lightweight blue shirt, bald and bearded, 41-12 months-old Mohammed al-Bashir turned to his Syrians on Tuesday from behind his desk in an empty conference room. Asking for “stability and peace”, he announced that he will be the head of the transitional government until March 1.

Less than two weeks ago, each such address can be provided by Bashar Al-Assad, a brutal dictator who supervised the killing of a whole lot of 1000’s of Syria residents and displacement of over 11 million.

But the Assad regime and 54 years of single-family rule collapsed after the 11-day rebel offensive. He and his wife Asma They were smuggled Damascus by Russian intelligence officers who flew them to Moscow.

Bashir talked to his compatriots full of hope, but in addition not vital what may occur. I will thank for his position of the Islamist fraction Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which conducted the Coalition of Rebellia, which overturned Assad. From the starting of 2024, Bashir was the political head of the Syrian government of salvation (SSG), the administration of the opposition area run by HTS in northwestern Syria.

Supported by Turkey, HTS and SSG ensured the management and measure of stability in the part of the Idlib and Aleppo provinces since November 2017, but they were also accused by Human rights groups abuse of power and discrimination of religious and ethnic minorities. Despite the breaking from Al-Qaeda in 2016, HTS is also designated as “terrorist” by the UN, USA, Great Britain and a few European countries.

In an interview with Italy Corriere della cheese In the newspaper on December 11, Bashir was asked about the HTS past. He replied: “The necessary actions of some Islamist groups led many people, especially in the West, to associate Muslims with terrorism and Islam with extremism. There were errors and misunderstandings that distorted the true importance of Islam, which is a “religion of justice.” Precisely because we are Islamic, we guarantee the rights of all people and all communities in Syria. “

Aiming towards stability

Born in the Idlib Province, Bashir graduated from electric engineering at the University of Aleppo in 2007. He worked at the Syrian gas company, and after the start of the Syrian Uprising in March 2011, he was the director of the institution ensuring education for youngsters to children affected by conflict. In 2021 he obtained a second degree of Sharia and law at the University of Idlib.

The Prime Minister is an indispensable technocratic contrast with the HTS Ahmed Al-Sharaa leader, before Abu Mohammed Al-Golani. It was the latter who drew all international attention and questions after the fall of Assad.

IN Interview with Sky News After displacing the previous government, Al-Sharaa turned to other countries: “Their fears are unnecessary, a willing God. Fear comes from the presence of the regime (Assad). The country is heading towards development and reconstruction. He goes towards stability. ”

Bashir is the face of this stability. When the rebels moved south of Idlib and Aleppo to free Hama City at the starting of this month, not only the “new dawn of freedom and dignity”, but promised: “We promise you in the government of salvation that we are involved in meeting your expectations, rebuilding your city to return them to the leading civilized status … It is a day of joy and pride, but it is also a day of work and work and responsibility.”

This seek for responsibility and ID is far more than the prime minister. Shortly after his Tuesday, Bashir reported a gathering with members of the Old Government and a few administration directors in Idlib and the surrounding area “to facilitate all necessary work for the next two months.”

Technocrats are already developing administration plans by reviewing the regime’s bureaucracy. Mohammad Yasser Ghazal, delegated from Idlib to managing the city of Damascus, he said: “Everything will become one. All government bodies will be resolved: without the government of salvation, no faction, nothing. Everything was all in one Syrian republic. “

In the face of the legacy of the regime in the field of corruption, buddies and centralized power, new officials asked the heads of departments to say their messages and explain the function of their department. They I met the staff Quoting government textbooks from the Nineteen Thirties and Sixties, while not answering direct questions on their duties or decision making.

Fast movements in the early days

There are early days, but up to now a fast transition to the rebels, and now government governments have been largely peaceful together with the continuation of services and on a regular basis business. Rebels issued an announcement Promotion of respect for all minorities. And in the face of plunder possibilities, they warned against any destruction of public or private property and imposed a police night.

The tools have been maintained. In Aleppo City, one of the first acts was to put in new cells of mobile phones. The economic system has been secured and the airports will soon be opened again. Remuneration, which amounted to a mean of around $ 25 ($ 19.80) per 30 days as part of the regime, will be increased According to SSG remuneration, as much as around $ 100 per 30 days.

A complete amnesty was declared for army soldiers, police and protection staff, provided that they submitted documents regarding official patchy and identification cards. Hundreds The men lined up in the queue In hours after the Aleppo trial.

Individual acts of revenge were reported in relation to some data related to the regime. One of the performed was Jalal al-Daqqaq, who was involved in Killing over 200 detainees in SyriaApparently, feeding the throats for pets.

However, there was a general compliance with the rebel order to avoid violence. Posts on X suggest that sources from minority sects, including Druze, Ismailiis and Alawites (whose members include Assads), confirm That all revenge operations weren’t ethnically motivated.

The new government is aware that maintaining security and services is a great politics. Because the Assad regime leaves the basketball economy, in addition to mutilated society, international help will be useful.

To be obtained, HTS will must be faraway from the UN, the USA and European Black. Ghazal sums up that technocrat plans “require political recognition (and addressing) a terrorist designation, which, I think, soon.”

But good politics will also must persuade abnormal Syrians who lived under the regime. In the store selling freshly printed Syrian revolutionary flags in Damascus, the seller of Fadi Al-Myly was asked by Washington Post to discover the new prime minister. He couldn’t. But whoever he is: “We don’t want him” The butterfly said. “We want choices.”