An Israeli attack on military targets in Iran over the weekend is becoming an increasingly routine occurrence within the decades-long rivalry between the 2 countries.
Israel has conducted low-level or “unofficial” operations in Iran previously, but for the reason that October 7, 2023 Hamas attacks on southern Israel and the next Israeli war in Gaza, tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated into direct military confrontation for the primary time.
While the implications of this particular strike are not yet clear, it shows that violence within the Middle East will not end any time soon. It can also be a clear example of how easily one conflict – on this case in Gaza – can escalate into latest conflicts with unintended consequences.
But beyond Gaza and the Palestinians, other dimensions are at play. Relations between Israel and post-revolution Iran have never been good. The Iranian government does he called for the destruction of Israeland Israel used its foreign intelligence service, Mossad, to disrupt Iran’s nuclear program murders AND cyber war.
In its latest direct attack on Iran, Israel attacked military targets within the provinces of Tehran, Khuzestan and Eelam from the air, causing minor damage to military facilities and killing 4 soldiers. Israel consulted with the U.S. State Department on its plans, however the United States was not directly involved within the strikes.
Although Tehran is downplaying the extent of the destruction, the Iranian regime has not ruled out a response that should keep the region in suspense for weeks to come. In fact, some hardliners in Iran’s parliament say the strike has crossed the ia red line response is obligatory.
Israeli Army/Ho/AP
Who is to blame here?
Answering the query “who started it?” on this conflict it’s not that easy.
If you asked the Iranians, they might say that the primary escalation occurred in early April Israel attacked the Iranian diplomatic complex in Damascus, Syriakilling, amongst others, two senior Iranian generals.
If you asked Israelis, they might say that Hezbollah’s attacks in northern Israel last yr are actually Iran throwing stones because Hezbollah is combat representative of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
Iran twice responded to Israeli attacks on its territory with barrages of rockets and drones carrying explosives – once in retaliation for a consulate strike AND again in early October after Ismail Haniyeh, one of the leaders of Hamas, was died as a result of a strike in Tehran. The latest Israeli airstrike was a direct response to Iran’s retaliation that took place in early October.
US President Joe Biden he said after the newest Israeli attack “I hope this is over” – an attempt to get either side to stop escalating. But unfortunately that is not his calling.
Maintaining a delicate balance
There is a reason why direct military attacks between nations are rare, even between sworn enemies. When attacking one other country, it’s difficult to predict exactly the way it will react, although a retaliatory attack is nearly often expected.
This is because defense forces are not only used to fight and win wars – they are also obligatory to deter them. When a fighting force is attacked, it’s important that it counterattacks to maintain the assumption that it may well deter future attacks and show its capabilities. This is what is occurring between Israel and Iran at once – neither side wants to appear weak.
If that is the case, where does escalation end? De-escalation is actually a game of chicken – one side must be content with not responding to an attack aimed toward lowering the temperature.
However, states are under equal pressure to select whether to respond to an attack or de-escalate.
On the one hand, showing that the military is unable to respond to an external threat is unacceptable and theoretically encourages further attacks. Unused repellent is not a repellent.
On the opposite hand, there may be a risk that retaliation will turn into a complete conflict with the opponent. In the case of Israel and Iran, this could almost actually mean the involvement of American forces – a terrible prospect.
Fortunately, this end result is unlikely. There are signs that each Iran and Israel are using their attacks to “save face” and maintain deterrence reasonably than further escalate tensions, given that each countries have carried out attacks on non-essential targets.
Both sides have reasons to avoid greater conflict. Israel just opened second front against its adversaries, targeting and facing Hezbollah in Lebanon the most important conventional fighting force within the region if total war broke out with Iran.
Iran’s leaders have come under domestic pressure in recent times due to widespread public discontent. Iran would reasonably proceed to attack Israel through its proxies and maintain plausible deniability, as direct war could threaten the regime’s survival.
However, this latest strike can also be a reminder that the longer conflicts last, the less likely they are to be contained. For greater than a yr, the war in Gaza has raised tensions within the region to a fever pitch. A ceasefire would make a significant contribution to reducing these tensions and stopping the spread of political violence within the region – before it is just too late.