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Iran: who will be the next supreme leader?

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The recent death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash will not only trigger latest presidential elections. Many commentators consider Raisi was meant to remain next supreme leader Iran.

This position lies at the heart of the country’s complex political system. Although many institutions are involved in governing Iran, in most matters the supreme leader has the final say.

In fact, it is extremely unlikely that Raisi will succeed current Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. According to the Iranian structure, the position requires each political ability and non secular credibility, following the example of the Iranian structure Supreme Court Guardianship Theorywhich former leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini placed at the center of the revolutionary structure of 1979.

Admittedly, when Khamenei succeeded the late Khomeini a decade later, the Iranian structure needed to be amended because Khamenei didn’t have the requisite religious position in the clerical hierarchy. He was not an ayatollah like Khomeini, so the Iranian structure was amended to emphasise political competence over religious legitimacy – although even this may not be enough to legitimize Raisi’s candidacy.

For his part, Raisi was not even a middle-ranking cleric. He had no real religious power or political charisma. As such, it is very unlikely that each the clerical and political establishments will accept him as supreme leader.

The Assembly of Experts, the constitutional body accountable for electing the supreme leader, may be dominated by the so-called “conservatives” allied with a part of the faction supporting Raisi. But in Iran’s Shiite equivalent of the Vatican, Qom, there are senior ayatollahs who wield enormous influence at home and abroad and have a casual say in succession.

In an Islamic republic guided by theocratic policies, this clerical factor is clearly essential, and Raisi had no supporters in Qom.

Mourners carry the coffin of late Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi during the funeral procession at Masumeh Temple in Qom, Iran, May 21, 2024.
Mohammadrez Alimadadi/IRNA/EPA

Raisi was also not perceived as an individual with great political achievements. The high positions he held were handed over to him by Khamenei. Moreover, he was deeply involved in a few of the most egregious ones Human rights violations in Iran’s recent history when he sat on the panel accountable for inflicting the death penalty on 1000’s of political prisoners in 1988. Raisi tried distance He resigned from this role himself, but never denied his involvement.

When Raisi ran for public office as a presidential candidate in the 2017 elections, he lost to Hassan Rouhani, who she ran a campaign for higher relations with the world and internal reforms. The next elections in June 2021, which finally awarded Raisi the presidency, were least questioned in the history of the Islamic republic. No real dissent was allowed.

In 2022, the “Women, Life, Freedom” debate erupted in widespread dissatisfaction with Iran’s increasingly limited political space protest movement – a large outpouring of opposition. The inability of the Raisi administration to cope with these protests and not using a major outbreak of state violence was one other indicator of his failure to stabilize Iranian policy.

His leaning towards the far right marginalized various layers of Iran’s energetic civil society in addition to reformist political factions. This only undermined the legitimacy of his government. Raisi was seen as a straightforward “yes” to Khamenei and his supporters, who looked as if it would be the only faction holding onto him.



But Khamenei shouldn’t be Khomeini. The latter had a huge following, which led to certainly one of the most shocking revolutions in recent history. It is way more difficult for Khamenei to maneuver with impunity. As I established in my book on Iran if Khomeini was there “Lenin” After the Iranian revolution, Khamenei became an peculiar prefect.

This compromised position and the convoluted clerical politics in Iran also explain why I don’t consider that Mojtaba Khamenei is more likely to succeed his father. The younger Khamenei doesn’t have any of the true religious credentials obligatory for the position of supreme leader, nor has he held any senior political position – the second constitutional requirement.

Being the son of the current leader is one other drawback. The revolution against the concept of hereditary monarchy in Iran and beyond cannot afford such a succession. As certainly one of the last living figures directly involved in the 1979 revolution. Ali Khamenei is aware of this this.

The next leader of Iran

So who will replace the current leader? The truth is that nobody is certain, not even the political establishment in Iran. Speculation abroad, much of it based on ill-informed information, is fueled by policies imposed on the Iranian narrative. The reality is that there’s a constitutional process that shouldn’t be easily monopolized by anyone person – not even the current supreme leader.

However, the job description is obvious. Iran’s next supreme leader will have a solid religious standing, tolerated by senior Qom clerics in addition to the clerical establishment in the country.

He will have political experience but will be largely untainted by a serious scandal. He will have an aura worthy of respect from the powerful Revolutionary Guards and will have some revolutionary pedigree that will tie him to Khomeini, the founding father of the Islamic Republic.

The latest leader will also be at the heart of the so-called the “axis of resistance”, a conglomerate of movements spread across the region, from Palestine to southern Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. And it will inherit a nuclear infrastructure able to being built atom bomb. Therefore, the Iranian establishment will also search for certain competences in conducting diplomacy.

Whoever later leads modern Persia will change into certainly one of the principal figures of world politics – an individual who moves and shakes the radically changing world order. This is the full scale of this position, which will determine the way forward for Iran, the region, and international security for generations to return.

 

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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International

Research country: Birmingham hosts BISA 2024

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“So it’s your first time in the UK and you’ve come to Birmingham? “You are poor,” was the conversation on the train. I grimaced as I got off the carriage and had no connection with the sprawling metropolis, often proudly called “England’s second city” by locals. But what I heard was not an unusual reaction from the British when considering “Brum”, a city often treated harshly as being unpleasant to the attention.

The West Midlands (as you would possibly guess, its neighbor the East Midlands, which I visited a couple of weeks ago) is nevertheless an enormous and diverse region, home to almost three million people and a wider metropolitan population of over 4 million. The response of the Swedish visitor from Sweden was reasonably more positive than an Englishman may need expected. She had an exquisite few days and despite the (unsurprisingly) unsettled weather in the beginning of the summer, she was already desirous about returning to those shores.

The guest, an instructional at Lund University (Conversation member institution), attended the annual conference of the British International Studies Association (POWER). It’s a big gathering that draws researchers from all around the world, and that is what attracted me to Birmingham as well. I only managed to survive for someday, coming and going, but my experience was similarly upbeat.

Not Paris

Let’s be honest, when you arrive at New Street station it becomes quite clear that Birmingham shouldn’t be Paris. There is a combination of buildings here, some paying homage to an era of producing and industrial success, lots of them not risk the king’s wrath. And on a somewhat dreary Friday morning in early summer, the excitement that when characterised even towns devoid of great tourist attractions was absent; driven out by Covid and maybe never to return.

However, there was still traffic and plenty of people happening foot or by shiny tram to the central Centennial Square were also heading to the BISA conference. And despite Birmingham’s struggles, the town council filed for bankruptcy last yr – it looks as if it might offer opportunities that other cities haven’t got. Additionally, it stays a wonderful place for a conference.

Birmingham: The late, great Telly Savalas loved this, baby.

Birmingham’s status as a middle of international events can have been shaped over time National Exhibition Center, next to the airport, nevertheless it is within the very heart of the town that there may be now a bustling conference center. There is a posh of conference rooms there wonderful city library, symphony hallAND Exchange, a part of the University of Birmingham (yes, one other member of the Conversation) hosted BISA delegates for 3 days.

Over coffee on the Stock Exchange, Julia Dryden, director and CEO of BISA, introduced me to the size of the event. They organized almost 1,200 registrations and 330 panels, in addition to quite a lot of accompanying events. I only got to a few, nevertheless it gave me insight into research being done in related disciplines.

Artificial intelligence and war

I managed to get entangled in a discussion among the many so-called critical military studies including a debate on the concept of ‘liberal war’, in addition to an enchanting panel entitled Predicting the Future of War: Artificial Intelligence, Automated Systems and the Decision to Recourse to Force, which featured articles from Toni Erskine on the Australian National University and Nicholas Wheeler on the University of Birmingham.

After lunch, for obvious reasons, a session titled Publishing as a PhD Student: Do’s and Don’ts caught my attention. Under the leadership Richard Devetak The University of Queensland has guidance and guidance on how and when early-career researchers can publish. Of course, I used to be keen to listen to their thoughts on moving beyond the academy and having their work appear on platforms like The Conversation.

Marcus Nicholson, formerly a PhD student at Glasgow Caledonian University, duly informed the room that he had written for The Conversation and that this had led to re-publication in national media in addition to interest from broadcasters. Others talked about how blogging and broader involvement in academic journalism allowed them to succeed in a much wider audience and increased the impact potential of their research.

This time it was a fast trip across the West Midlands for me, but my colleague Rachael Jolley, considered one of our international affairs editors, also dropped by earlier within the week, so you may expect to see articles from this yr’s BISA Conference published here.

So I returned to New Street station to catch the train to London and overhear the meeting between the Lund researcher and his fellow passengers. Like them, BISA continues its activities and can gather in Belfast, Northern Ireland next yr. We hope to be there.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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ICC seeks arrest warrants for Benjamin Netanyahu, Yahya Sinwar and other Israeli and Hamas leaders – but unlikely to lead to swift justice

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This was requested by the Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court court judges edition arrest warrants for the leaders of Israel and Hamasresulting from the Hamas attacks on Israeli civilians on October 7, 2023 and the following Israeli siege of Gaza.

Karim AA Khan, Chief Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court, often called the ICC, – wrote within the statement that he sought arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in addition to Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar, Muhammad Deif and Ismail Haniyeh. Khan said each Israeli and Hamas leaders “bear criminal responsibility” for “war crimes and crimes against humanity,” which he detailed within the statement.

ICC allegations against Hamas include extermination, murder, hostage-taking, rape and other acts of sexual violence. The ICC’s charges against the 2 Israeli leaders include ravenous Palestinians in Gaza, “deliberately targeting civilians,” in addition to persecution and “deliberate killing.”

The ICC, an independent tribunal based in The Hague, Netherlands, prosecutes genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes – the latter legal term which incorporates attacks on civilians and other crimes. violations of martial lawSuch as blocking humanitarian aid.

Khan announced an inquiry in November 2023 to investigate Hamas and Israeli suspects following the Hamas attack in Israel that killed 1,200 people and kidnapped lots of more, and Israel’s subsequent war in Gaza, which has to date over 34,000 Palestinians died.

ICC criminal investigation appears right after the famous genocide case which South Africa brought against Israel in December 2023 before one other international tribunal called the International Court of Justice.

But these investigations and courts are different. Although the ICC can conduct trials of individuals allegedly responsible for criminal violations of international humanitarian law, the International Court of Justice is the a part of the United Nations that adjudicates civil and civil disputes. cannot accuse individuals of crimes.

How human rights researcher and international courts, I imagine it’s important to emphasize that the ICC and other contemporary international criminal tribunals would not have enforcement powers of their very own. This signifies that in an Israel-Hamas situation, the ICC may never have the option to arrest the suspects or bring them to justice.

Therefore, these international courts have had mixed experiences in holding senior political and military leaders accountable for their crimes. Only when political leaders lose power is there a probability that their governments will arrest them and hand them over to international courts for prosecution.

Palestinians walk among the many rubble of destroyed buildings in Nuseirat, Gaza, April 29, 2024.
AFP via Getty Images

A challenge for international courts

Take the instance of Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has been opposing an ICC arrest warrant since March 2023 for allegedly committing war crimes throughout the Ukrainian war. As long as Putin stays in power, there’s virtually no probability of his arrest.

International criminal tribunals just like the ICC have a two-fold problem. First, these tribunals don’t have any real international police force to perform arrests.

Second, governments implicated within the alleged crimes of their leaders often try to obstruct the work of international tribunals by not extraditing suspects and trying to attack the tribunals as biased.

The problem of enforcement, as my scholarship has showncould allow the leaders of a robust country corresponding to Israel or an entity corresponding to Hamas to avoid arrest warrants issued by international courts – provided the suspects remain inside their country or territory.

Israel is in this example just isn’t a celebration to the ICC, meaning that he has never agreed to abide by his judgments or arrest orders and doesn’t otherwise recognize the court’s jurisdiction. The United States and other countries, including Qatar, where a minimum of one in every of the Hamas leaders named in Khan’s arrest warrant lives, are also not members of the ICC and don’t have any legal obligation to make arrests.

If the ICC pre-trial chamber approves Khan’s request for arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Gallant, they’ll have the option to go to meet US leaders in Washington without fear of arrest. But now they’ll likely avoid travel to European Union countries, all of that are a part of the ICC, and will probably be forced to arrest Netanyahu.

All this also can contribute to Israel’s development further international isolation and pressure on his conduct throughout the war.

Issuing arrest warrants for Hamas leaders also risks stigmatizing Hamas internationally.

The United States, which at times strongly opposed the ICC, but also supported the ICC warned the ad hoc court, as was the case within the ICC war in Ukraine case that issuing arrest warrants for Israeli leaders could jeopardize a possible ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas.

Milosevic’s fall from power

Not all arrest warrants fail.

Attempt Serbian leader Slobodan Milosevic from the mid-2000s shows how international tribunals might have the option to prosecute alleged war criminals after they lose power.

In 1993, when the war in Bosnia was still ongoing, the UN Security Council established a special court, called the Tribunal for International Criminal Tribunal for the previous Yugoslaviato address crimes committed during regional wars.

This court indicted Serbian nationalist leader Slobodan Milosevic for war crimes and crimes against humanity committed in 1999 throughout the ongoing war in Kosovo. Milosevic’s alleged crimes in Kosovo include a large ethnic cleansing campaign against Kosovo Albanians, the country’s largest ethnic group. Milosevic later faced additional charges for alleged crimes in Bosnia and Croatia.

However, when the indictment was issued, Milosevic was still in power and his government protected him from arrest. Milosevic lost the presidential election in late September 2000 and after widespread protests he gave in.

The United States promised the brand new democratic government in Serbia significant economic aid to speed up post-war recovery. This helped persuade the Serbian government to accomplish that arrest Milosevic and then move it to international tribunal in June 2001.

People are holding loudspeakers and standing in front of a black and white photo of a man looking very serious.
Relatives and supporters of hostages held by Palestinian militants in Gaza chant during an indication calling for their release on April 27, 2024.
Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

A possible handbook for the leaders of Israel and Hamas

Milosevic trial was launched in February 2002but he died in prison in 2006, shortly before the top of the trial.

His trial continues to reveal that, under certain circumstances, international courts can overcome their lack of enforcement powers and bring high-level suspects to justice. International political pressures and incentives often play a pivotal role on this process.

As long as any political and military leaders facing potential arrest remain in power, it is probably going that no amount of political pressure or guarantees will persuade Israel, Qatar or other countries to cooperate with the international court and hand over any leaders in the event that they are indicted.

History also shows that even when Hamas leaders are overthrown or Israeli leaders lose the elections, there isn’t a guarantee that potential suspects will ever face the ICC.

There is broad public opposition to the ICC in Israel, encompassing politicians across the political spectrum condemning Khan’s request for arrest warrants.

Despite the undeniable fact that Khan can be searching for to prosecute Hamas leaders, Israeli politicians reacted to the ICC’s decision indignant requests for arrest.** Moreover, a minimum of within the short term, it is very unlikely that the United States will apply to its close ally, Israel, the identical pressure that it successfully applied to Serbia over the arrest of Milosevic after his fall from power.

This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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No matter who wins, both Biden and Trump will likely agree on one thing: doing less in the Middle East

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Before the October 7 Hamas attacks on Israel, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan he founded that the Middle East was “more peaceful than it had been for decades.”

This is after all not valid. Instead, the heartbreaking state of affairs in the region has inflamed tensions and inspired generation-defining protests around the world.

These concerns have led many to ponder whether the Biden administration’s Middle East policies will ultimately achieve this impair the president’s November re-election campaign against former President Donald Trump.

Eventually perhaps. But even when the occupant of the White House changes, US policy towards the region will largely remain unchanged. That’s because both Biden and Trump will do all the things in their power to realize what Sullivan hoped for: an ultimately more peaceful Middle East.

Cross-party support for coalition constructing

No single U.S. initiative will be more crucial to making sure a more peaceful Middle East than strengthening ties between regional partners. The foundations for construction have already been laid Abraham AccordsArab-Israeli normalization agreements initiated by the Trump administration and adopted by the Biden administration.

The fruits of such efforts became visible when a various coalition – consisting of the US, France, Britain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel – collaborated to shoot down 300 Iranian missiles fired at Israel on April 13. Tehran’s first direct attack on Israel in its decades-long shadow war.

The coalition’s collective response marked dramatic progress toward a long-term and bipartisan U.S. goal for the Middle East: a level of regional cooperation and stabilization that will ultimately enable U.S. downsizing.

As much as Trump may not have appreciated some US alliances, like his predecessors, it’s secure to assume that whoever occupies the White House next yr will likely seek to construct on these regional alliances. There are many reasons.

Rockets are carried in trucks during the April Army Day parade at a military base in northern Tehran.
Vahid Salemi/AP

Iran’s actions remain unchanged

First, the scope and severity of Iran’s destabilizing behavior in the region has only increased.

Iran’s proxy militant groups in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Gaza have demonstrated unprecedented levels of aggression in recent years. His at issue whether Iran was fully aware of the October 7 Hamas attack, but Tehran undeniably continues to financially support the group.

Iran has behaved no less aggressively. In addition to the unprecedented attack on Israel in April, it included:

Israeli-Arab ties persist

Second, Iran’s behavior undoubtedly contributed to this stronger bonds between Israel and the Arab world. Although such bonds survived quieter since the starting of the war in Gaza.

Jordan’s King Hussein, who rules over a largely Palestinian population, could also be a vocal critic of Israel’s conduct in Gaza, but he nonetheless advantages from record amounts of Israeli gas and desalinated water being directed to his energy-poor and water-stressed country.

The Egyptian economy may be very dependent on Israeli energy that the Egyptians survived constant blackouts when Israel briefly restricted gas exports at the starting of the war.

The United Arab Emirates and Israel deepened their trade, political and military ties only after they ended latest Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement got here into force last yr.

Although the UAE has repeatedly condemned Israel for its actions in Gaza, the reality is that the trade is two-way increased by 7% in the first quarter of 2024

Both Trump and Biden want to depart the Middle East

Finally, and perhaps most significantly, both Republicans and Democrats agree on the have to shift U.S. attention and resources to the Indo-Pacific region. This has not escaped the attention of American partners in the Middle East.

That’s why the Biden administration both supported and continued the Trump administration’s two most significant diplomatic initiatives in the region – the Abraham Accords and the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan.

The reason is the long-held bipartisan belief that the United States shouldn’t expend more resources – or worse, lose more US lives – in the Middle East.

In Gaza, Trump did it he insisted Israel to finish his actions by saying:

Israel needs to be very careful since you lose lots of the world, you lose lots of support.

The Biden administration’s public and private calls for Israeli restraint in Gaza make it clear that the Biden administration can be not interested in further entanglement in the Middle East.

Regardless of who wins in November, both Trump and Biden can be irritated if the Israeli-Hamas war continued in January 2025. They would even be equally concerned if Hamas resumed attacks on Israel. But neither is willing to spend greater than the bare minimum of political capital to resolve the situation.

In the era that the United States finds itself in produce more own energy and the USA fear of terrorism are decreasing, American residents and politicians would like that allies in the Middle East maintain their very own security.

US Marines in Baghdad.
U.S. Marines on watch on the grounds of the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, in 2020.
Kyle Talbot/US Marine Corps/EPA Flyer

The United States’ role in the region stays integral

Despite the United States’ desire to withdraw from the region, the next president still has a key role to play.

The normalization of Saudi-Israeli relationsfor instance, is undoubtedly the most significant goal of the Abraham Accords. And that will prove difficult and not using a binding U.S. security guarantee for Saudi Arabia, a Saudi-U.S. civilian nuclear agreement, and increased U.S. support for an independent Palestinian state.

The U.S. military presence in the region will also proceed to play a key role in uniting a various coalition of nations opposing Iran’s growing influence. After all, it was the extensive coordination of U.S. Central Command that enabled the international response to Iran’s April 13 attack on Israel.

The United States’ future role in the region can best be described as “leading from behind” – although no U.S. president has said it and probably never will say it directly.

Instead, the winner of November’s elections will publicly defend regional “stability.” On this front, strengthening the regional coalition will remain the foremost strategy – and may ultimately develop into the basis for peace.


This article was originally published on : theconversation.com
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